Is obama's grasp slipping?

**troublemaker_42** · 11-04-2009, 09:39 AM

Virgina and New Jersey, two states that were pivotal in Obama's election, and whose Democratic candidates Obama campaigned for and endorsed, just elected REPUBLICAN governors. Is thsi backlash against Obama possibly? Is it a sign that the spell he seemingly cast over the nation with his promises of "change" is finally broken? is it a sign that people are realizing the problems with Obama's strategy of burying us in debt to fix the economy and provide universal healthcare? Are thse two elections a sign of things to come, or are they merely coincidence that have nothing to do with the Democratic vision for America thse days? While I don't want to put too much stock in the results, my personal opinion is that is IS a sign of Obama's support declining, and that those spellbound by his promises are starting to see the reality of whart those promises will cost America.

Payless · 11-04-2009, 12:03 PM

dont worry, obama will fix it.
YES WE CAN!

**Hashishi** · 11-04-2009, 12:06 PM

I think you have to put it in perspective. The Democratic incumbent in New Jersey was a Wallstreet executive and the non-incumbent in Virginia resigned straight from the Attorney General's office. Not to mention that turnout isn't going to be the same as when Obama's not on the ticket. But yeah, no doubt the honeymoon period is well and truly over for the Democrats. I think it's far-fetched to put the losses down directly to Democrat policies, though. I think an overall disaffection over the state of the economy is more to blame.

**troublemaker_42** · 11-04-2009, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hashishi

I think you have to put it in perspective. The Democratic incumbent in New Jersey was a Wallstreet executive and the non-incumbent in Virginia resigned straight from the Attorney General's office. Not to mention that turnout isn't going to be the same as when Obama's not on the ticket. But yeah, no doubt the honeymoon period is well and truly over for the Democrats. I think it's far-fetched to put the losses down directly to Democrat policies, though. I think an overall disaffection over the state of the economy is more to blame.

I can definitely see that POV as well. However, Obama campaigned hard for Democratic victories in these two races, and was, possiblly for the first time, firmly rebuffed by the people, who wanted no part of it. I think the days of Obama riding his crest of popularity are coming to an end, nad in order to have the support of the people, he's got to do more than make promises that have thus far went largely unfufilled. I think people are now expecting action, not mere promises to act in the future (even if thats enough for the Nobel commission).

People are rightfully concerned about the economy, and the public at large isn't throughly convinced the billions pumped into the "stimulus" is going to have the effects that were expected, or that it was money well spent. The AP story about how they exaggereated the number of jobs(by as much as 1 in 5, or 20%) created by the stimulus so significantly probably hasn't helped ease that sentiment, nor has the rising unemployment. (LAs Vegas, NV is now at something like 15% unemployment!!). I know I've never been a supporter of Obama, but I was hoping I'd be proven wrong by much of what he's done that I disapprove of......but, so far, I haven't been suprised by the results, or should I say a lack there of.

Bhikku · 11-04-2009, 12:30 PM

I can't stand Obama. And that's coming from a liberal that campaigned for him and was going to vote for him (barring a cataclysmic case of food poisoning that kept me out of the polls). I was very excited when he got elected. Now I'm sitting around wondering what new shit is going to hit the fan next.

I have never seen a president say so much utter bull with relation to his actual actions and have so few people call him out.

It kind of blows my mind to think about it.

Americans are f*cking stupid. That's the only explanation I can come up with.

OldTimeToker · 11-18-2009, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bhikku

I can't stand Obama. And that's coming from a liberal that campaigned for him and was going to vote for him (barring a cataclysmic case of food poisoning that kept me out of the polls). I was very excited when he got elected. Now I'm sitting around wondering what new shit is going to hit the fan next.

I have never seen a president say so much utter bull with relation to his actual actions and have so few people call him out.

It kind of blows my mind to think about it.

Americans are f*cking stupid. That's the only explanation I can come up with.

You worded it pretty perfectly in my opinion. Whether your a democrat or republican, its obvious that he's done relatively nothing. Though I think he cant be worse than bush, I think he's not exactly the gift from god we thought he was. We still got three more years with the guy so somebody better man up and make a comprise...

Yana Usdi · 11-04-2009, 01:54 PM

It was inevitable that many would end up disappointed in him. Many thought he would end the wars but he never ran on removing all troops, what he said was he wanted to remove "combat troops" but still leave tens of thousands for peacekeeping and such. Same with those who thought he was a real progressive and other things which he never was. He just looked a little like one compared to Bush I guess. Naomi Klein among others has been warning about that since long before he was elected and for more reasons than this article covers. That's one reason why the whole "socialist" bit was always so stupid. All anyone ever had to do was to look at the man and see what he really did.

But, I wouldn't put too much stock into what happened in Virginia. I grew up in the DC area and where Maryland always tended a bit more dem Virginia always tended a bit more repub and before Obama they had voted repub for President for quite a few years, couple of decades I'm pretty sure. But Virginia wasn't the type of place that was his core support anyway and that's not where I see him as being in trouble.

Where his real problem lies is with people like Bhikku above there and I've commented on that in the past here, in this post back in early September among others. He's so worried about being that bipartisan guy that he's selling out real reform to bring along Olympia Snowe and others who don't really support the same things as his core supporters do to start with and he's losing them in his effort to chase his image as the "bipartisan" President. It's a battle he lost long ago when the tea party and birther movement took off and found vocal support and little criticism for months among elected repubs. Bipartisan isn't what they want, failure is, so they have an opening for themselves. He's got to either spit out some real results or face the midterms with his own core supporters disheartened and his opposition fired up with success.

**troublemaker_42** · 11-18-2009, 08:08 AM

Dems alarmed as Independents bolt party - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com

Quote:

Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.

Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.

Since then, however, a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama's agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.

A Gallup Poll released last week offered a disturbing glimpse about the state of play: just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year. In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa.

Obama’s own popularity among independents has fallen significantly, too. A CBS News poll Tuesday showed the president’s approval rating among unaligned voters falling to 45 percent — down from 63 percent in April.

“We withdrew from the accounts of voters and now we need to pay them back,” said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. “We are having these conversations right now about what independents need to see and hear.”

Pat Waak, the chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party, said the party had so far failed to convince independent voters of the steps it had taken to improve the economy.

“I think the economy is at the base of the tension,” she said. “Quite frankly, we’ve got to do a better job of messaging. There’s a lot of work to be done to get independents more comfortable with what we’re doing.”

“Listen, it hasn’t been an easy time,” said T.J. Rooney, a former state legislator and the chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “It’s almost like we’re a victim of our own success. When you’re governing, that changes the political dynamic.”

Andrew Myers, who polled for Democrats in Virginia House of Delegates races this year, said his analysis of exit polls indicated that voters had come to see Democrats as a party of high spending — too willing to make a rush for the pocketbooks and unable to effectively articulate how their health care reform push benefited independents, many of whom already have insurance plans.

“This is what’s particularly heartbreaking: There is a real sense that no one in Congress is standing up for them,” said Myers. “It’s a real problem for messaging for us.”

Nowhere was that more obvious than in Virginia and New Jersey, where GOP candidates captured governorships on Nov. 3 on the strength of landslide margins among independent voters.

In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won a 65 percent to 34 percent victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds among independents in a state where President Barack Obama split the independent vote 49 percent to 48 percent against Republican John McCain just one year earlier.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie won a 58 percent to 31 percent victory over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine among independents — a stark contrast to Obama’s 51 percent to 47 percent win among independents in 2008.

“The perception of what’s happening in Congress is polluting what’s happening down below,” Myers said.

Michael Dimock, a pollster for the Pew Research Center — which reported in a new survey that only 45 percent of independents want their own representative to return to Congress — also believes Democrats have suffered for their inability to move the ball on key agenda items such as health care.

“I think it’s about action and not about words right now. The public wants to see action,” said Dimock. “I’m not sure words are going to help Democrats at this point. They’ve got to achieve some successes.”

“Independents are typically more frustrated with the political process,” noted Dimock. “They tend to have a real distaste for partisanship and ideology, and that’s about all they’re hearing right now.”

Some strategists, however, attribute the party’s weak Election Day showing among independent voters to changes in the composition of the independents who showed up at the polls.

“What we saw are more independents who are like Republicans and fewer independents who are like Democrats,” said Brad Lawrence, a veteran Democratic media consultant in New Jersey who worked for Corzine. “I think there was an enthusiasm gap.”

“This was not the same group of independents who showed up in 2008,” noted Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. “For Obama’s election, the participating independents were more moderate; for Christie and McDonnell, the composition of the independents that came to the polls was more conservative. It’s this self-selection among the independent voter pool that helped the Democrats in 2008 and hurt them in 2009.”

Democrats also argue that with polls showing fewer voters identifying themselves as Republicans, the pool of independent voters is simply becoming more conservative than in the past, as those formerly Republican voters move into that camp. An October Washington Post/ABC News survey, for example, found just 20 percent of those polled identifying themselves as Republican.

“It looks a lot worse than it really is,” said John Anzalone, a veteran Democratic pollster. “Independents aren’t just falling away from Democrats.”

Still, Anzalone cautioned that with the party’s agenda under fire from Republicans and allied conservative groups, Democrats in conservative Southern and Western states need to be aware of the potential peril in alienating independent voters.

An automated survey released Monday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling underscored that message with its finding that Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder, a seven-term Arkansas congressman, was only narrowly leading his little-known Republican challengers and held just a 30 percent approval rating among independents.

The erosion among independents, however, isn’t simply a regional problem. Democrats are anxious about the prospects of five-term Sen. Chris Dodd in Connecticut, who trails one of his GOP opponents by 28 percentage points among independents in a prospective head-to-head matchup, and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter and Iowa Gov. Chet Culver, two Democratic incumbents with shrinking approval ratings among independent voters. A Des Moines Register poll released this weekend showed the first-term Culver trailing the GOP front-runner among independents by nearly 30 percentage points.

“It’s a challenge,” said Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, referring to the current election environment. But, he added, “we don’t need all of them back. We just need a majority.”

Sen. Robert Menendez, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, acknowledged that the recent polls constituted “red flags” for Democrats. But he said voters remained unsatisfied with a Republican Party that, he said, had yet to demonstrate an ability to prove it has answers to the problems facing the country.

“I take this data with a grain of salt,” Menendez told POLITICO. “At this moment in time, we may not be doing as well with independents as I’d like, but Republicans aren’t doing well, either.”

I certainly believe the indications are becoming clearer that not all of America is embracing the Democratic Party, and if they want to remain in control of Congress come 2012, theres going to need to be some rather significant changes in how they are appealing to voters, espeically the independants, who support is certainly drifting from the Democrat side of things. I sincerely believe Obama and the Democratic party in general has sort of shot themselves in the foot with some of their shinanagins. Cramming a healthcare plan down our throats, the bailouts, and so on have had an affect on Americans of all kinds, and when the change Obama promised hasn't been forthcoming, I can certainly understand unease among his supporters and former Democratic supporters

Yana Usdi · 11-18-2009, 08:45 AM

While I have no problem with the idea the they are in a bit of trouble I do wish the pundits would quit trying to point to Virginia and them as an example of it. Main problem with that is in the same election the repubs also lost a Congressional seat that they'd held since the Civil War. That's the one where the repubs and conservative party went after each other and in the end that cost them the seat. Listening to them they didn't learn anything and plan to primary more of them in 2010.

We've got two conflicting trends here. On one hand the extremes on some of the right is going to turn away voters or dilute support for them but on the other the dems have obvious problems as well. But the press is mostly talking about it from the dem side for some reason. As far as I can tell the next election isn't going to be so much about who can attract the most voters as who turns the fewest of them away. Neither party is looking too sharp today.

Mike Stark is a liberal blogger who used to run a site called CallingAllWingnuts, he's got a new one called StarkReports and it had an article on the dems problems. It examines the accusations of 'elitism' and finds some credit to the accusations, he thinks that's a part of their problem. I don't agree with all of it but there are a few good points in there. They do need to communicate better and even where it's not intended as such maybe some of it comes off that way.

Liberal Elitism at StarkReports.com

**troublemaker_42** · 11-18-2009, 08:59 AM

Quote:

]We've got two conflicting trends here. On one hand the extremes on some of the right is going to turn away voters or dilute support for them but on the other the dems have obvious problems as well. But the press is mostly talking about it from the dem side for some reason.

IMO, its simple enough to see why people are concentrating on the Democrats. They are in power. During the Bush era, every headline was about how the Republicans are flushing the US down the toilet. Now that its Obama's turn, he is going to face much of the same criticism. The shoe is on the other foot, so to speak. Its easier to point at those in power and see what they are doing wrong.

Quote:

Mike Stark is a liberal blogger who used to run a site called CallingAllWingnuts, he's got a new one called StarkReports and it had an article on the dems problems. It examines the accusations of 'elitism' and finds some credit to the accusations, he thinks that's a part of their problem. I don't agree with all of it but there are a few good points in there. They do need to communicate better and even where it's not intended as such maybe some of it comes off that way.

I tend to agree. It almost seems as though the Democrat leadership are seeing those who oppose them as somehow "beneath" them, and the overall tone they take when discussing any opposition to their agenda puts me off, and I'd imagine it has the same effect on others. You can disagree with your opposition without presenting your side or viewpoint as being beyond reproach. I find it hard to respect the opinions of a group that outright dismisses any criticism of their plans, even when its obvious there are weaknesses that need to be addressed before attempting to move foreward. In a lot of respects, I find the Obama admin. to be JUST as arrogent as that of Bush, and even moreso at times in the way they talk about the opposition

And thanks for the Yana..... I enjoyed the read, and tended to agree with the author on a good many points.

11-04-2009, 09:39 AM	#1
troublemaker_42 0tolerance4BS Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 12,985 Grams: 50,540.50 Thanks: 2,952 Thanked 4,184 Times in 2,026 Posts Stock Portfolio Total Value: 0.000 Gain/Loss: 0.000%	Is obama's grasp slipping? Virgina and New Jersey, two states that were pivotal in Obama's election, and whose Democratic candidates Obama campaigned for and endorsed, just elected REPUBLICAN governors. Is thsi backlash against Obama possibly? Is it a sign that the spell he seemingly cast over the nation with his promises of "change" is finally broken? is it a sign that people are realizing the problems with Obama's strategy of burying us in debt to fix the economy and provide universal healthcare? Are thse two elections a sign of things to come, or are they merely coincidence that have nothing to do with the Democratic vision for America thse days? While I don't want to put too much stock in the results, my personal opinion is that is IS a sign of Obama's support declining, and that those spellbound by his promises are starting to see the reality of whart those promises will cost America. __________________ Ted Nugent: "To my mind it is wholly irresponsible to go into the world incapable of preventing violence, injury, crime, and death. How feeble is the mindset to accept defenselessness. How unnatural. How cheap. How cowardly. How pathetic." If total government control equals safety, why are prisons so dangerous? Last edited by troublemaker_42 : 11-04-2009 at 10:14 AM.

11-04-2009, 12:03 PM	#2
Payless Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 439 Grams: 2,071.85 Thanks: 140 Thanked 58 Times in 48 Posts Stock Portfolio Total Value: 0.000 Gain/Loss: 0.000%	dont worry, obama will fix it. YES WE CAN! __________________ i like you

11-04-2009, 12:06 PM	#3
Hashishi Unf*ckwit'able Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,691 Grams: 34,919.37 Thanks: 1,569 Thanked 1,712 Times in 924 Posts Stock Portfolio Total Value: 0.000 Gain/Loss: 0.000%	I think you have to put it in perspective. The Democratic incumbent in New Jersey was a Wallstreet executive and the non-incumbent in Virginia resigned straight from the Attorney General's office. Not to mention that turnout isn't going to be the same as when Obama's not on the ticket. But yeah, no doubt the honeymoon period is well and truly over for the Democrats. I think it's far-fetched to put the losses down directly to Democrat policies, though. I think an overall disaffection over the state of the economy is more to blame. __________________

11-04-2009, 01:54 PM	#7
Yana Usdi Dogs best friend Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 992 Grams: 14,642.00 Thanks: 1,106 Thanked 975 Times in 455 Posts Stock Portfolio Total Value: 0.000 Gain/Loss: 0.000%	It was inevitable that many would end up disappointed in him. Many thought he would end the wars but he never ran on removing all troops, what he said was he wanted to remove "combat troops" but still leave tens of thousands for peacekeeping and such. Same with those who thought he was a real progressive and other things which he never was. He just looked a little like one compared to Bush I guess. Naomi Klein among others has been warning about that since long before he was elected and for more reasons than this article covers. That's one reason why the whole "socialist" bit was always so stupid. All anyone ever had to do was to look at the man and see what he really did. But, I wouldn't put too much stock into what happened in Virginia. I grew up in the DC area and where Maryland always tended a bit more dem Virginia always tended a bit more repub and before Obama they had voted repub for President for quite a few years, couple of decades I'm pretty sure. But Virginia wasn't the type of place that was his core support anyway and that's not where I see him as being in trouble. Where his real problem lies is with people like Bhikku above there and I've commented on that in the past here, in this post back in early September among others. He's so worried about being that bipartisan guy that he's selling out real reform to bring along Olympia Snowe and others who don't really support the same things as his core supporters do to start with and he's losing them in his effort to chase his image as the "bipartisan" President. It's a battle he lost long ago when the tea party and birther movement took off and found vocal support and little criticism for months among elected repubs. Bipartisan isn't what they want, failure is, so they have an opening for themselves. He's got to either spit out some real results or face the midterms with his own core supporters disheartened and his opposition fired up with success. __________________ "Give a man a fish, and he will eat for a day. Teach him to fish, and he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day." -Dan Moon Always be kind to animals, Morning, noon and night: For animals have feelings too, And furthermore, they bite. - John Gardner Last edited by Yana Usdi : 11-04-2009 at 03:27 PM. Reason: Susan Snow? Too early in the morning for politics ;)

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Hot Products:

Orange Krush - Legal Bud

Black Magic Solid Smokes

Vapir One Vaporizer