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Yet Another Drug War Failure
by Ted Galen Carpenter | The Cato Institute | August 13, 2004

"A familiar and dreary pattern"

John Walters, the head of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, recently startled the media by admitting that the $3.3 billion Plan Colombia, now in its fourth year, has failed to make a significant dent in the amount of cocaine flowing out of that country. Walters added hastily, however, that he expected to see substantial progress in the next year or so.

His comments are the latest in a familiar and dreary pattern. Each new initiative in Washington's international campaign to stem the supply of illegal drugs is launched with great fanfare. During the early phases, isolated examples of success are touted as evidence that the overall strategy is working. Ultimately, though, reality intrudes and it becomes clear that the drug supply is as plentiful as ever. Thrown on the defensive, drug warriors admit that the task has proven more difficult than anticipated but argue that if we stay the course, success is just around the corner. When such predictions prove faulty often enough, the existing initiative is quietly buried and a new one is launched with the appropriate fanfare.

That is what has occurred with Plan Colombia. The Clinton administration initiated the program in 2000, and within months U.S. officials boasted about the amount of coca plants (the raw ingredient for cocaine) that the aerial spraying program was eradicating. Similar claims of success continued until recently. The State Department's most recent annual International Narcotics Control Strategy Report contended that the amount of coca cultivation in Colombia fell from 420,000 acres in 2001 to 280,000 acres in 2003.

That statistic was superficially impressive, but it ignored two important factors. First, although the acreage devoted to coca cultivation may have declined in Colombia, the acreage in Peru and Bolivia (the other two major players) had risen sharply. That reversed the trend of the mid- and late 1990s when U.S.-funded anti-drug measures led to a crackdown that reduced cultivation in Peru and Bolivia-only to see it explode in Colombia and spread to new locales such as Ecuador and Brazil.

Second, even if the acreage devoted to coca in the entire Andean region has declined slightly in recent years, drug traffickers have become more efficient. In other words, they are able to produce the same amount of cocaine from a smaller number of cultivated plants. The bottom line is that the supply of cocaine flowing into the United States (and other markets) remains plentiful, as even the nation's drug czar now admits.

[zombienote: Clear predictions of the Iron Law of Prohibition.]

Indeed, the situation in Colombia may be even worse than Walters' remarks suggest. Washington has placed great confidence in the willingness of Colombian President Alvaro Uribe to wage a vigorous war on drugs. But a 1991 assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that Uribe was in league with drug trafficking organizations. Indeed, the DIA concluded that Uribe himself was one of the top 100 drug traffickers.

Uribe has denied those allegations, and the U.S. State Department criticized the DIA's assessment and expressed continued confidence in him. Nevertheless, given how thoroughly drug trafficking cartels have penetrated Colombia's political establishment over the years, the episode creates more than a little doubt.

Drug-related corruption within the Colombian police and military is certainly notorious. Just last month, the police commander of one of the major drug-producing provinces and his deputy were sacked after an 80 lb. cocaine seizure mysteriously disappeared. That was the latest in a series of scandals that included the resignation of the head of the National Police when it became apparent that members of his force took more than $1 million in bribes to return some two tons of cocaine they had seized from traffickers.

Plan Colombia has not succeeded any better than earlier anti-drug initiatives. And contrary to the drug czar's tenacious optimism, that pattern is not likely to improve in the next year-or the next 10 years. One wonders how many times U.S. officials have to travel down the road of a prohibitionist strategy before they realize that it always leads to a dead end. Given the huge profit margin that exists because drugs are illegal, supply side campaigns are doomed to fail. It is time that Walters and other policymakers recognize that reality.

Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and is the author or editor of 15 books on international affairs including Bad Neighbor Policy: Washington's Futile War on Drugs in Latin America (Palgrave/Macmillan).

[zombienote: Colombia has oil which guarantees the US will be evermore deeply involved with what happens there.]

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U.S. reassesses role in Afghan drug war
By Rowan Scarborough | THE WASHINGTON TIMES | Published August 15, 2004

The White House is planning a major shift in the U.S. military's counternarcotics role in Afghanistan, with a leading option involving the first-time use of American troops to attack opium-distribution points.

The reassessment comes as both Democrats and Republicans warn that the current policy -- which relies on the Afghan government to eradicate the poppy crop as the United States plays a support role -- is simply not working.

Afghanistan's heroin-producing poppy crop is booming. The Washington Times reported last week that internal Bush administration estimates put the poppy crop at more than doubling next year after as high as a 100 percent increase this year. The officials say Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been reluctant to start an all-out drug war so close to planned October elections, for fear of antagonizing regional warlords who dip into opium profits.

But the criticism in Washington has the White House rethinking its overall policy. In recent weeks, policy-makers at the Pentagon sent options to the National Security Council for a much broader role for about 19,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

A senior defense source said President Bush seems to be leaning toward approving a deeper military involvement. A top option is to organize troops into counternarcotics teams that would act on intelligence to attack drug smugglers at various distribution points before the poppy-produced opium reaches the borders.

Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said no final decision has been made, but added that an inner-agency process is under way on counternarcotics policy in Afghanistan.

"We're looking into the strategy to see if anything should be changed," Mr. McCormack said.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who traveled to Afghanistan this week and discussed counterdrug policy with Mr. Karzai, said the coalition is looking at a "master plan" for dealing with the Afghan poppy crop.

As of now, Britain, whose addicts are prime users of heroin from Afghanistan's poppies, has the lead anti-drug role. The U.S. State Department is the administration's chief agent.

Asked whether U.S. troops will start going after drug trafficking, Mr. Rumsfeld said, "There are plans being fashioned now. I don't want to get into whose troops could do what. We've got a lot we're doing with respect to the terrorist networks. It requires an overall master plan, and that is what's being developed."

Bush administration officials are reluctant to say publicly that terror mastermind Osama bin Laden is tapping into the drug trade for cash.

But privately, senior officials say there is mounting evidence that operatives from his al Qaeda terror network are buying and reselling opium gum and heroin to offset lost cash as the result of Muslim charities being shut down by U.S. allies.

A public pronouncement that bin Laden is tied to drugs is likely to heighten calls for the military to dive more deeply into interdiction missions. Currently, the task force in Afghanistan confines itself to training local officials and providing intelligence. There is anecdotal evidence of coalition troops merely watching as drug shipments pass by.

All that would change if Mr. Bush adopts options offered by the Pentagon.
The United Nations' 2003 report on the Afghan drug trade stated that farmers and traders netted $2.3 billion.

"Out of this drug chest, some provincial administrators and military commanders take a considerable share," the U.N. report says. "The more they get used to this, the less likely it becomes that they will respect the law, be loyal to Kabul and support the legal economy."

Bush administration officials told The Times last week that the crop this year will produce 5,400 metric tons to 7,200 metric tons of opium gum, an increase of 50 percent to 100 percent compared with 2003.

At a hearing this summer, Rep. Henry J. Hyde, Illinois Republican and chairman of the House International Relations Committee, said narco-warlords might come to dominate Afghanistan's fledgling democracy.

"Their continued influence is due in large part to the consequences of high levels of poppy production, which are putting Afghanistan on the road to becoming a narco-state," Mr. Hyde said.

[zombienote: Nothing about the Herb, but this so-called "War on Drugs" would likely not even be a term had the US Federal government not taken such an extraordinary exception with cannabis or dumped such massive money and resources into a "war" against it. Most of the money, most of the propaganda is devoted to suppression of the cannabis plant and of efforts by the People to reform cannabis laws.

The War on Real Drugs is there sort of as "camoflage - so that the People don't connect the dots and realize they spend between $20 and $40 Billion dollars EACH year now to suppress the Herb.

The "war on drugs" is a doomed concept from the word go, but politicians can never hear such words: they aren't in the script. The Iron Law of Prohibition handily presdicts all their now-documented failures as well as bumper crops of the drugs targeted for prohibition. It won't change and they won'r win. They will tax us into poverty, and drugs and useless but rich politicians will be everywhere.]

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Alien Space Signal

There's no money for your issue so long as we're squandering $50 billion a year on the DrugWar. Ben Masel

Fear became the ultimate tool of this government - V.

 

gg27

At least the great generation had the sence to stop alcohol prohibition.

Unfortunately the Drug War is a huge industry fueled by the richest machine on the planet.

Click HERE:http://www.drugsense.org/wodclock.htm
to see where your tax dollars are going.

Rajones

I stared at that clock for awhile and my jaw dropped. Then I saw the arrests clock.... one of those arrests was me =(