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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...den_s_strategy

[quote]CAIRO, Egypt - Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) appears to be trying to transform himself from terrorist to political leader, the conclusion reached by some Middle Eastern experts from watching recent messages attributed to the al-Qaida leader.


But at least one of those experts questions whether bin Laden has anything to offer his followers beyond a call to arms, saying he does not have solutions to the economic and social issues facing young Muslims.


Abdel Rahim Ali, who studies Islamic movements, said many Islamic fundamentalist or radical groups turned into political movements after their violent campaigns lost steam. For example, Egypt's Islamic Group denounced terrorism and revised its holy war strategy after its attempt to topple Egypt's regime by force was met with a fierce crackdown.


"This is only natural for any radical movement. First they start as militant and secretive and then they try to get credibility from the public before they turn into a political movement," said Ali, author of "Alliance of Terror: al-Qaida Organization."


Ali said the cease-fire that bin Laden offered the Europeans in April in exchange for their withdrawal from Iraq (news - web sites) was a political message that differed markedly from his usual uncompromising posture.


Also, in a video aired on the satellite station Al-Jazeera days before the November presidential election in the United States, bin Laden made an unusual overture to the American people, telling them they could avoid another Sept. 11 attack if they chose leaders who did not threaten Muslims.


"Even Spartacus turned his revolt into a political movement," Ali said. "So why not bin Laden?"


Ali said bin Laden might want to transform al-Qaida into an organization with both military and political wings, mirroring paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland or the Palestinian movement.


In bin Laden's latest message released Dec. 16, his first directed specifically at Saudis in years, he advised his followers to attack the kingdom's oil installations to weaken both the West and the Saudi royal family. That led to speculation al-Qaida intended to adopt the tactics of insurgents, not terrorists.


While some analysts say al-Qaida has been forced to change course because it has been weakened and possibly shattered by a U.S. crackdown, others believe that any shifting by bin Laden is only temporary and tactical.


"His goal is to build an Islamic state and his means will remain holy war," said Saudi writer Mshari al-Thaydi, who has been monitoring Islamic radical groups for years. "He does not know any other means to make his point."


Al-Thaydi said both bin Laden and his top lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahri, who addressed such issues as human rights and corruption in recent messages, abhor political means and only trust power. He noted that al-Zawahri, in his book "The Bitter Harvest," harshly criticized the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest Islamic movement, for resorting to social and political programs to advance its quest for power.


Al-Thaydi said bin Laden's focus on Saudi Arabia in the recent message attributed to him showed that he intended to step up al-Qaida's terrorist activities in his homeland with the ultimate goal of toppling the monarchy and assuming power.


"Osama thinks if he takes over Saudi Arabia he can topple all other Islamic regimes," al-Thaydi said.


Bin Laden has readjusted in the past "to cope with challenges and circumstances," said Radwan al Sayed, a respected Lebanese writer on Islamic affairs.


Bin Laden's main shift came in 1990, when he clashed with Saudi rulers over the kingdom's decision to allow U.S.-led coalition troops to use its territory to stage the war to liberate Kuwait from Saddam, said al Sayed, whose works include "Struggle For Islam."


"That made him believe that Islam's enemies are not only outside, but also inside," al Sayed said.


But he added that al-Qaida lacked what it took to lead a country or win support from mainstream Muslims, who have other forums for voicing their concerns, and risked alienating its most radical supporters by advocating Western-style secular politics.

"They can stir opposition but they cannot rule and be in power," he said, adding that if bin Laden were trying to present a new image, it was an acknowledgment of bankruptcy.

"Practically speaking, his enterprise has failed. He has nothing to offer Muslims but increasing their frustration. Young Muslims want meaningful things," he said.

For example, Muslims face issues of poverty, unemployment and greater rights for women.

"There is no endless holy war," al Sayed said. "Holy war must have a goal. So what is its goal now?" [quote]


I hope we are moving to more moderate times and people will start to realize that the cycle of violence will never lead to peace. Also I'm not sure I draw such a fine line between insurgents and terrorists.

 

Higher Logic

That goes along perfectly with Eric Hoffer's book on "true believers" and movments. They are often replaced by something else, starting off as say religious, transforming into political or nationalistic. Wouldn't suprise me, and it only seems natural, so attributing it to anything the US has done over there would be foolish too.

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MickityMike

Assuming that it's true that al-Qaeda is attempting a transformation from a military/terrorist campaign to a political/social one, can we not reasonably look for some sort of catalyst for the alleged change?

The IRA and various Palestinian militants are cited in the above article as examples of terrorist groups that eventually adopted political wings - but only once they realized that a straightforward military/terrorist victory was impossible, and thus, they had no choice but to change. If that is the case, then can one not reasonably theorize that Western military force in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere, encouraged at the very least, such a change? One could argue that the change might have happened regardless, but is it actually so foolish to say that US-led force probably sped up the transformation?

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