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MickityMike

"Correlation does not imply causation." Yeah, I know.

come on, show me some proof that these events wouldn't have happened anyway.

How does one prove a hypothetical situation? Want I should provide some hypothetical evidence? You don’t think that just maybe the recent invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have given dictators who incite and fund Islamism and oppress their people pause? This Administration seems rather intent on encouraging democracy, especially in countries who’ve “displeased” us. Whether good or bad, you must admit that the US’ new attitude – again, displayed quite starkly in Iraq and Afghanistan - towards the Greater Mid-East very likely has an affect on these other countries.

This is almost like arguing over whether the Reagan Doctrine was central in ending the reign of the Soviet Union in the 1980s. ... (Yet you can find former Soviets who’ll testify that the massive US arms build-up under Reagan crippled their economy...)

Anyhoo, there's a very strong argument (IMHO) to make that the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11 acted as both catalyst and accelerant, but mainly the latter. Look at the pace of the changes, and look at the kinds of changes. (The kinds were mostly already simmering, but the pace of the boil is increasing exponentially.) I don't think that the invasion of Iraq was The Reason for All Good Things in that region, but I also don't think that it didn't play some part as well. Sometimes it was rather significant, sometimes it was peripheral. But to deny that Iraq has played a remarkable part in the politics of the region is, IMHO, kinda short-sighted and naive. ...I guess the historians will let us know 20-50 years from now which one of us was more naive?

This thread, while admittedly a good example of the optimism of the pro-war crowd for the future of the Mid-East, is also quite telling of the suffocating pessimism of the anti-war throng. Even events that can be seen as objectively good, are now shunned and derided. It’s a shame really.

It’s a shame because I think that without this current division over the war in Iraq, the reaction on the now anti-war side would be much more positive than we’ve seen so far in this thread.

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HappyMan

What I have to ask, is, who is "pro-war"?

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S2

I dont know about pro-war versus anti war, but it seems to me that the overall left/right debate is often boiled down to pessimisim/optimism respectively. I have been optimistic that removing impediments to freedom will succeed, while the counter argument seems to have been that bullies cant force people to be free.

do I think that the Coalition invasion of iraq is the sole or even direct cause of recent trends in the mideast? No. But I do think it pushed the tipping point and emboldened those who seek freedom and has given pause to those who would be impediments to it. The goverments of egypt and syria must have factored in the fact that Bush would not be sympathetic to their cause of maintaining status quo.

Stephanie S.

This is a concept I just haven't been able to embrace but I can really see how you could. It's seems reasonable, but I personally am just not able to step over and wrap my head around it.

Given Syria's history, it would take decades for me to believe that they are turning over a new leaf with regard to terorism. In light of the recent homicide bombing in Tel Aviv, it doesn't seem that all of Syria is on the same page. I was quite pleased to see that hey handed over Saddam's half brother, though I'm not sure what that's worth at this juncture anyway.
Egypt on the other hand, I have a little more faith in.


peace

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"See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda." —George W. Bush, Greece, N.Y., May 24, 2005 (Listen to audio)

S2

Seems odd that Syria would quickly, hand over the 1/2 brother and back down in Lebanon and even are discussing a full pull out of Lebanon-- this just seems to be way too big of a reversal for Syria-- theres no way its fear of Bush. It could be UN Res. 1559 that France is strongly backing with the US-- perhaps Syria sees that there is no playing tth EU agains tthe US when it comes to their meddling in Lebanon.

 

PotShot

I have tried to shy away from stating an opinion on the war. I am anti-war, but I am optimistic about the way things are going... that is, if TRUE "democracy and freedom" are spread, then this can only be a good thing.

On the other hand I am pessimistic about all these new democracies that the U.S. wants to encourage, and grow. "Sowing the seeds of freedom." Maybe some countries will be better at democracy than we are, but I hope that our system is not taken as a model for new systems.

I fear that if there is any seed of corruption in government, it will seek to grow and embrace the opportunity that this much radical change presents.

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S2

See what I mean?

PotShot

I am not pessimistic about the war... I am concerned with what will happen even if we succeed.

Hiz Highness

The bantering of the term "freedom" and "democracy" by governments (including the US) is simply a ploy to rouse the nationalistic/patriotic spirit of the American public so that the elite can continue to grab more power, more resources, and more territory for themselves.

Let us not forget that the US has deployed troops to murder our own citizens (McArthur murdering WWI vets as they cried out for their rightful benefits). Let us not forget that the US has actively set up and suported dictatorships in other parts of the world (Shah of Iran anyone?) and has worked hard to topple legitimate elected democracies (Pinochet).

Yet the government knows it just has to start mouthing the lofty rhetoric of "freedom" and "democracy" and the ignorant public will rally to it's empty words.

I say we stop identifiying with the liars, megalomaniacs, and decievers who happen to be in power, and start pondering what we can do to achieve true freedom and democracy for ourselves.

. . . or we can sit on our collectives asses, crack open another beer, and talk about how great the new free and democratic middle east is working out as the bodies continue to stack up. Go Freedom!

-HH

goldberry

If optimism is attributing every good thing that's happening in the mideast to Iraq then pessimism would be attributing every bad thing to Iraq - that's not what I'm doing. (hmm wonder how some would react to that, if I just started attributing every negative thing in the mideast to Iraq w/o any proof whatsoever - wouldn't you think that's stupid?)

What I am doing is asking for proof, and all you were able to give me is that "you're optimistic". No demonstrators shouting 'we want freedom like they have in Iraq', no surveys showing that other Arabs admire Iraq's new government (how could they, it's way too early for that - that's the main reason I find these unsubstantiated claims of "democracy is spreading" so ridiculous), only that you're optimistic.

In other words, for all you know Lebanon's reform, Syria withdrawal, and all these other events could be have happened on their own. Heck, someone even attributed elections in Palestine to Iraq. Can you believe that? That's totally absurd, because it was clearly Arafat's death - not our invasion of Iraq - that caused those elections.

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